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Continents apparently also possessed advantages. Africans enjoyed a huge head start, because Africa is the continent with by far the longest history of human occupation. North America is a big fertile continent, with the result that it supports the richest and most productive nation today. Australia provides by far the earliest evidence for human ability to cross wide water gaps, and some of the earliest widespread evidence for behaviorally modern humans.
Why, nevertheless, were Eurasians the ones to expand? Although every lay person sees that this is a question crying out for answer, historians have mostly ignored this question. Several reasons explain their neglect. One reason is that the answer clearly lies in the pre-literate past, because by 3400 BC Eurasians (and North Africans, biogeographically and politically part of Eurasia rather than of sub-Saharan Africa) had already had metal tools for thousands of years and were starting to develop writing and empires, thousands of years before any of those things would appear on any other continent. But most historians consider history to begin with the origins of writing, and consider the pre-literate past as lying outside the scope of their discipline and instead to be left to archaeologists. Also, as we shall see, the answers to this question involve details of subjects (especially plant and animal biology and microbiology) in which history graduate students receive no training. But lay people still want an answer to this obvious question.
As a result of the failure of historians to supply an answer, lay people often fall back on the transparent interpretation of supposed racial superiority of Eurasian people themselves, despite the lack of evidence for that interpretation. THE ANSWER My own interest in this question became rekindled by my experiences in New Guinea over the last 50 years.
When I arrived in New Guinea for the first time, it became clear to me almost immediately that New Guineans are curious, questioning, talkative people with complex languages and social relationships, on the average at least as intelligent as Europeans and Americans. In New Guinea I’m the dope who can’t do elementary things like follow an unmarked trail or light a fire in the rain. My New Guinea friends are patient with my shortcomings and don’t expect much of me when it comes to the everyday challenges of New Guinea life. Why did I nevertheless come to New Guinea as a representative of the “advanced” colonizing society possessing steel tools and writing, when my New Guinea friends traditionally had only stone tools and no writing, 46,000 years after their ancestors had reached New Guinea? Eventually, a New Guinean named Yali, in the course of a long conversation with me about birds and volcanoes and my work and other things, asked me the question directly: “Why is it that you white people developed so much cargo i.e., steel tools and other products of civilization and brought it to New Guinea, but we black people had little cargo of our own?” Despite the obviousness of Yali’s question, I didn’t know how to answer him. It took me 25 years until I was ready to offer an answer, in Guns, Germs, and Steel. Traditional warfare: Dani tribesmen fighting with spears in the Baliem Valley of the New Guinea Highlands.
The highest one-day death toll in those wars occurred on June 4, 1966, when northern Dani killed face-to-face 125 southern Dani, many of whom the attackers would personally have known (or known of). The death toll constituted 5% of the southerners’ population. Photo credit: Karl G. The answer depends on a synthesis of four bodies of information, in the fields of social science, botany, zoology, and microbiology, applied to findings of archaeology, linguistics, and human genetics.
Many social scientists have studied the development of complex societies around the world, and the emergence of technology, writing, centralized government, economic specialization, and social stratification. The conclusion of social scientists is that all of these developments required sedentary populous societies producing storable food surpluses capable of feeding not only the food producers themselves, but also capable of feeding full-time political leaders, merchants, scribes, and technology specialists. Until 11,000 years ago, all people everywhere on Earth were hunter/gatherers, living at modest population densities because the hunter/gatherer lifestyle yields only modest food quantities and little or no storable food surpluses. (Some hunter/gatherers in especially productive environments became semi-sedentary and developed chiefs, but no hunter/gatherers went as far as developing kings, metal tools, or writing). Beginning 11,000 years ago, it was the rise of food production (agriculture and herding), yielding 100 to 1,000 times more food per acre than the hunter/gatherer lifestyle, that fueled the rise of sedentary populous societies with storable food surpluses and all of their consequences.
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That’s the first step in answering Yali’s question. One might still wonder: if food production had arisen simultaneously all around the world, then peoples everywhere would have developed complex societies simultaneously, and the subsequent world dominance of Eurasian societies would remain unexplained.
Here, the bodies of information in the fields of botany and zoology become relevant. Food production didn’t arise simultaneously around the world: in most of the world it never arose independently at all; it did arise independently in just nine small regions, from which it diffused to other regions; and, among those nine regions, it arose more than 10,000 years ago in the Fertile Crescent and possibly in China, but only as recently as 2500 BC in the eastern United States. The value of the domesticated plants and animals also varied among regions: the most numerous and productive suites of domesticated species arose in the Fertile Crescent, followed by China, Mexico, and the Andes, while the least numerous and least productive suites arose in the eastern U.S., New Guinea, and Ethiopia.
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Why did food production arise in only nine regions? Why were those regions not the most fertile and productive regions of modern agriculture, such as California, Europe, Japan, and Java? Why didn’t ancient hunter/gatherers everywhere domesticate locally available wild species?
– e.g., why didn’t Aboriginal Australians domesticate kangaroos, and why didn’t California Indians domesticate the oak trees on whose acorns they subsisted? A century of research by botanists and zoologists has established that only certain plant and animal species lend themselves to domestication, and has identified the specific problems preventing the domestication of. Image from The World Until Yesterday. Photo credit: Marka/SuperStock.kangaroos, oak trees, and most other species. This issue presented one of the crucial problems for me in writing Guns, Germs, and Steel. It’s not enough to observe that kangaroos weren’t domesticated, and to conclude from that observation that kangaroos couldn’t be domesticated; that reasoning would be circular.
Hence I devoted two of the longest chapters of Guns, Germs, and Steel to assembling many independent lines of evidence showing that the explanation for the non-origins of domestication in most regions of the world, and the non-domestication of most wild species, lay with the wild plant and animal species themselves, not with the people of those regions. The spread of food production from those nine centers of origin followed a striking geographic pattern: rapid spread along east/west axes (such as the axis of Eurasia), slower spread along north/south axes (such as those of the Americas and of Africa).
That’s because crop and livestock species, and people using technologies and social behaviors associated with those species, can spread more rapidly at the same latitude, where they always encounter constant day length and seasonality and similar diseases, than across bands of latitude, where they must adapt to different day lengths and seasonality and diseases. My listeners and readers find this pattern as fascinating as did I: after I give a lecture on Guns, Germs, and Steel, I can often recognize those people nearby who have just come out of my lecture, because they are tracing horizontal and vertical lines in the air as they talk to each other. Thus, one can explain as follows the reasons why the people who spread around the world were Eurasians, not Aboriginal Australians or Native Americans or sub-Saharan Africans. The reasons had nothing to do with differences in the peoples themselves. Instead, the reasons were continental differences in the available wild plant and animal species suitable for domestication, resulting in earlier domestication of a more productive suite of domesticates in Eurasia, plus Eurasia’s east/west axis that facilitated the spread of those domesticates throughout Eurasia. That long sentence is what I answer when journalists ask me to summarize my 518-page book and 25 years of research in just one sentence for their busy readers.
That sentence also explains why Guns, Germs, and Steel, a book about the biggest pattern of human history, contains seven chapters about plant and animal domestication, plus four chapters about domestication’s consequences, but only five chapters about history itself; and why Guns, Germs, and Steel wasn’t written by a historian, but by a biogeographer. Microbiology, the fourth of the four bodies of information necessary for answering Yali’s question, played a specific role in the Eurasian expansion. One means by which Europeans were able to spread at the expense of other peoples was by infecting them (usually unintentionally) with epidemic infectious diseases such as smallpox and measles, to which Europeans had evolved some genetic resistance and had acquired much immune (antibody-based) resistance through historical and lifetime exposure respectively, while unexposed non-European peoples had no such exposure, hence no such resistance. But why didn’t non-European peoples evolve deadly diseases of their own to give back to invading Europeans?
The explanation lies in microbiological studies of recent decades, which I summarized in one chapter of Guns, Germs, and Steel, and which Nathan Wolfe, Claire Panosian, and I updated in a 2007 paper posted on this website. The exchange of major epidemic infectious diseases was one-sided, because most of those diseases in the temperate zones came to us humans from diseases of our domestic animals (such as cattle, pigs, and chickens) with which our ancestors lived in close contact after those animal species had been domesticated. But of the world’s 14 species of valuable domestic mammals, 13 were Eurasian, only one American, and none Australian. Hence Eurasians ended up as disease bearers, and with much resistance themselves to their own diseases. EXTENSIONS AND DISCOVERIES SINCE PUBLICATION IN 1997 Since I published Guns, Germs, and Steel in 1997, much new information has accumulated, which has enriched our understanding without fundamentally changing interpretations. I discussed some of these extensions in new English-language editions of Guns, Germs, and Steel released in 2003 and 2007.
The two most important geographic areas that did not receive detailed separate coverage in the 1997 edition of Guns, Germs, and Steel were Japan and the Indian subcontinent. The 2007 edition added a chapter on Japanese geography and pre-history, agriculture’s spread to Japan, and its consequences. Origins of food production.
A recent series of excellent papers on plant and animal domestication was published in the Journal of Anthropological Research (volume 68, no. This series includes evidence that the Indian subcontinent should be considered an additional minor center of independent agricultural origins. Other updates are my article “Evolution, consequences and the future of plant and animal domestication” (Nature 418: 34-41 (2002)) and Peter Bellwood’s book First Farmers: the Origins of Agricultural Societies (Oxford: Blackwell, 2005). Spreads of language families. Updates include my paper with Peter Bellwood, “Farmers and their languages: the first expansions,” posted on this website; Peter Bellwood’s above-cited book First Farmers; and a book edited by Peter Bellwood and Colin Renfrew Examining the Language/Farming Dispersal Hypothesis (Cambridge, UK: McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, 2002). Much new information has emerged about the farming-related spread of the Austronesian and Indo-European language families and the Bantu sub-sub-sub family. Edward Vajda made the surprising discovery of the first well-attested relationship between an Old World language family and a New World language family, when he demonstrated a relationship between the Na-Dene family of North America and the Yeniseian family of Central Siberia (The Dene-Yeniseian Connection (Anthropological Papers of the University of Alaska, N.S.
This implies a long-distance ancient spread by hunter/gatherers in the absence of farming, as is also true for the spread of the Pama-Nyungan language family of Aboriginal Australia. Spreads along east/west axes. My evidence in Guns, Germs, and Steel for preferential spread along east/west rather than north/south axes was anecdotal; I did not do systematic surveys. Two studies have now demonstrated this phenomenon quantitatively and systematically: Peter Turchin’s et al. World-Syst, Res. XII: 219-229 (2006)), for the spread of political power; and a paper on the spread of languages, by David Laitin et al. USA 109: 8 (2012)).
Extensions to economics. Since 1997, some economists have extended the reasoning of Guns, Germs, and Steel to understanding a central question of historical economics: why are some nations rich while others are poor? Ola Olsson and Douglas Hibbs showed that an early start towards farming and then to state formation explains much of the variation among national wealth today. Valerie Bockstette, Areendan Chanda, and Louis Putterman “States and markets: the advantage of an early start” (Journal Economic Growth 7: 351-373 (2002)) showed that, if one compares nations that have still been poor in modern times, an early start towards farming and state formation helps explain the rate at which those poor nations are catching up in wealth today. Extensions to the world of business.
From conversations with Bill Gates, Bill Lewis of McKinsey Global Institute, and others in the business world, I learned of possible parallels between the histories of societies as discussed in Guns, Germs, and Steel, and the histories of national business sectors, industrial belts, and individual companies. Delicious examples include the contrasts in productivity between Germany’s beer industry and its metal industry, or between Japan’s food-processing industry and its consumer electronics industry.
The Afterword to my 2003 edition of Guns, Germs, and Steel discusses these and other equally delicious examples.
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